Whether COP28 is judged as a success will hinge on the outcomes of the global stocktake (GST) process. C2ES for over two years has worked to shape the GST to drive transformational levels of implementation, fairness, and ambition at COP28 and beyond.
C2ES worked to shape the global stocktake (GST) to drive transformational levels of implementation, fairness, and ambition at COP28 and beyond. Whether COP28 is judged as a success hinges on implementation of the outcomes of the GST process, including the ambition of new nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
Parties to the Paris Agreement are required to undertake a GST every five years to assess collective progress toward the agreement’s long-term goals on mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation.
Informed by the GST, each Party is expected to communicate—by February 10, 2025—an updated NDC representing a “progression” beyond its previous NDC and reflecting its “highest possible ambition.” This process of increasing commitment to climate action through the GST to inform actions—including updating NDCs—is known as the “ambition cycle.” The GST is also mandated to “enhance international cooperation.”
The first GST concluded at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.
For over two years C2ES worked to help shape the GST process by ensuring a strong focus on opportunities to scale up climate ambition and implementation. To add real value and make a difference, C2ES called for the GST process to identify and highlight specific, implementable solutions to support achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement that speak directly to national-level policy makers and stakeholders in every country.
Ultimately, COP28 exceeded the expectations of many by setting out several global targets and signals to be achieved by 2030. Our ongoing work aims to leverage the COP28 GST outcomes to drive real-world action, assist countries to implement existing climate commitments, and facilitate increased ambition for, and implementation of, their next round of commitments. As part of this, C2ES is elaborating a vision for implementation of the COP28 outcomes through enhanced international cooperation.
The GST outcomes reflect hard-fought compromises. It calls for countries to transition from fossil fuels in energy systems “in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.” Other critical policy signals to parties from COP28 include tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency globally by 2030, as well as reflecting such efforts in the new NDCs of countries, to be tabled in 2025.
The GST also established a dialogue on implementing the global stocktake outcomes, a “Roadmap to Mission 1.5,” a new technology implementation programme to strengthen support for developing country technology priorities, and a high-level ministerial dialogue on the urgent need to scale up adaptation finance.
The COP28 GST outcomes will impact an important wider context beyond the formal UNFCCC process, influencing key political milestones, related events, and developments that will shape climate ambition and implementation. Successful implementation of the GST requires adequate attention to this wider context, with a strong emphasis on near-term scalable action consistent with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. As such, our ongoing work has a strong focus on how international cooperation on climate action, including by non-Parties, can be enhanced.
Given that the role of the GST is to inform enhanced implementation of climate action, what happens after the conclusion of the first GST will be a critical to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.