Delivering the levels of finance necessary to implement climate solutions at the scale needed—almost U.S. $6 trillion for developing countries by the end of the decade according to the agreed outcome from the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai—will be challenging. Nevertheless, available, accessible, and affordable climate finance from all sources will be a vital determining factor in the level of ambition and implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and whether the pathway to remain within the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit of the Paris Agreement can be realized.

In the short term, Parties must land a positive outcome on finance at COP29. Public finance must unquestionably continue to play a central role in climate action, particularly for countries or issues that cannot attract private finance at scale. The process toward agreeing the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) in Baku must assure developing country Parties in that regard. Additionally, given the limits to public sector donor climate finance, the NCQG must also generate confidence that climate finance will flow from many sources and will not be limited to the narrow confines of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

NCQG discussions could usefully consider how developing country needs could be integrated into a holistic multi-layered approach which would consider lessons learned, including precedent from other fora, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement will require a shift in the dynamic of climate finance discussions, necessitating political input from finance ministers and Heads of Government. Without this, progress will continue to be limited and uncoordinated. To this end, the UN Secretary-General could consider re-launching the High-Level Advisory Group on Finance in 2025.