Billion-dollar weather disasters are striking U.S. communities year-round, but they are most likely to occur—and even overlap— between March and August. The extensive layoffs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raise questions about the accuracy of weather forecasts that play a critical role in public safety and economic stability. Will the recent mass layoffs at federal agencies, particularly NOAA, weaken the United States’ ability to predict and respond to severe weather events?
NOAA is expected to cut 1,830 staff nationwide, including meteorologists who run local forecasts across the United States as part of the National Weather Service (NWS), a unit that provides real-time weather forecasts, predictive climate modeling, and emergency warnings to protect life, property, and enhance national resilience. Among many of the concerning impacts, these cuts threaten the agency’s specialized hurricane research aircraft program, which experts warn will lead to less accurate storm predictions and increased risks for coastal communities. Adding to the concern this week, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) notified NOAA that leases for two critical weather forecasting centers will soon be canceled.
The NWS operates as an indispensable public utility, providing life-saving forecasts and warnings at a minimal taxpayer cost, with an exceptionally high return on investment. Nearly every private weather company in the U.S.—including the forecasts you see on TV or your phone’s weather app—relies on infrastructure, data, and modeling from NOAA and the National Weather Service. According to climate scientist Daniel Swain, “NOAA and the NWS collectively offer tens to hundreds of billions of dollars each year in net economic benefit through a combination of averted losses and efficiencies gained… the private sector, as it presently exists, simply cannot quickly spin up to fill any void left by substantial dismantling of NOAA and/or the NWS.”
Experts warn that even temporary disruptions to essential weather services could result in significant loss of life and economic damage during extreme weather events, with former NOAA chief Rick Spinrad cautioning that such cuts could “kill a few thousand Americans every year.” The reductions in critical personnel and services hinder the local communities’ capacity to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather and climate-drive disasters, leaving them more vulnerable to escalating climate risks like rapidly intensifying hurricanes and fast-evolving wildfires.
The timing couldn’t be worse. Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that 2024 surpassed the critical 1.5 degree warming threshold as NOAA quietly released its annual summary of billion dollar climate and weather disasters. For those tracking this space, last year’s devastating climate events come as no surprise—but the statistics remain sobering.
The “billion-dollar” disaster page on NOAA’s website* shows that 27 disasters surpassed the so-called “billion dollar” impact threshold last year, making 2024 the second most active year after 2023, which clocked 28 events. With $182.7 billion in impacts, it was the fourth most costly year, and the eighth deadliest (568 direct or indirect fatalities).
The 3 costliest “billion-dollar” disasters in 2024 were hurricanes, although wildfires, drought, and heat waves brought significant climate impacts to communities across the western half of the country. These hurricanes, along with a long-duration cold wave in January that affected many central and southern states, were also the year’s deadliest events. The three largest hurricanes last year not only caused catastrophic loss of life and property, but they also devastated places previously thought to be climate havens, showing us that proactively building resilient communities is more important than ever.
The data on the billion-dollar disasters is staggering, and knowing what is behind them is critical to reducing risk in the future. NOAA’s experts have explained there are multiple factors at play: human development patterns are leading to increasing exposure, while climate change and intensifying weather conditions are increasing vulnerabilities and magnitude of impacts.
2025 began with deadly wildfires raging across Los Angeles, and now continues with more weather-related deaths as a massive storm moves across the country. If we are to protect our communities and support strong and resilient local economies and a thriving private sector ecosystem, we must protect critical information sources, proactively reduce risks, and invest in resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation. Diminishing NOAA and the critical resources it provides will take us in the wrong direction.
*If NOAA’s site isn’t loading or has been taken down you can see a map and list of billion-dollar events from 2000 through 2024 on C2ES’s Extreme Weather and Climate Change webpage