The period from the end of the global stocktake (GST) at COP28 (2023) through to COP30 (2025) is critical. During this time period we will learn the collective level of ambition of new climate targets, whether countries have taken into account the outcomes of COP28 in formulating them, and whether countries have put in place the domestic plans, legislation, finance and investment needed to implement those new targets. In the context of the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle, 2024 is a crucial year for preparation, action, and enhanced international cooperation.

The GST decision from COP28 sets out a number of key, transformational global targets and signals to Parties to: (i) inform their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs); and (ii) enhance implementation and international cooperation. Parties are expected to communicate their NDCs by February 10, 2025, with an end date of 2035 by February 10, 2025. The GST signals form part of the guidance and requirements that have been set out from Paris to date, including that:

• Each Party’s successive NDC will represent a “progression” beyond its previous NDC and reflect its “highest possible ambition,” reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), in the light of different national circumstances
• Parties “shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives” of their NDCs
• Parties include, as part of the information to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding of NDCs:
• how the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances
• how the NDC contributes towards achieving the objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, as set out in its Article 2
• how the NDC is informed by the outcomes of the GST, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement
• Parties come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors, and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 degree C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances
• Parties commit to accelerate action in this critical decade on the basis of the best available science, reflecting equity and the principle of CBDR-RC in the light of different national circumstances and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty
• Parties put in place new or intensify existing domestic arrangements for preparing and implementing successive NDCs
• Parties present their next NDCs at a special event to be held under the auspices of the United Nations Secretary-General.

The Presidencies’ Troika letter from March 21, 2024 recognizes the need for leadership among an apparent wealth of actors, events, and pathways for Parties to avail themselves in their efforts to take forward the GST targets and signals. Their second letter from July 23, 2024 further elaborates their Mission 1.5 work plan to engage Parties in a targeted set of activities for the remainder of 2024 to enhance ambition and enable action towards COP29. While this establishes a welcome platform, Parties and non-Party stakeholders (NPS) may find a more elaborated vision helpful in guiding them to effectively action each of the GST targets and signals, reflect them in new NDCs, and achieve them.

In order to implement the GST targets and signals through enhanced NDC ambition and implementation, major barriers must be meaningfully addressed, turned into opportunities for enhanced international cooperation, and translated into development priorities and domestic policies. In the context of making the case for clear leadership to enable such action, this paper:

• focuses on the GST decision’s call to Parties to contribute to, in a nationally determined manner, the doubling of energy efficiency globally by 2030 (that is, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements)
• sets out barriers and solutions, as identified by our work and others, that must be addressed and implemented to enable real action in 2024
• sets out key leadership considerations, how such a leadership role can be effectively utilized, and key priorities for 2024-2026.

Parties have nevertheless not yet accelerated the energy transition to the global pace and scale necessary to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, despite repeated observations that improvements in energy efficiency are “rational,” the “right economic choice,” “easy,” or “obvious.” Energy efficiency improvements provide mitigation co-benefits, such as energy cost savings, job creation, enhanced energy security, and improved air quality and health. Every country has potential to implement substantial energy efficiency improvements given that the potential to increase energy efficiency is more evenly distributed than renewable energy capacity.

Yet, for many reasons, energy efficiency improvements are often overlooked.  A lack of understanding can lead to a lack of demand. Energy policy has traditionally been dominated by a supply-side bias (i.e., how to produce more electricity?), with policymakers focusing less on the demand-side (i.e., how to consume less energy?). Energy efficiency is not very “glamourous” and can mean higher upfront costs that may put off consumers, even if they lead to long-term savings. Given that efficiency is about many small changes adding up to major impact, achieving the global doubling of energy efficiency target will be challenging.

Many of the obstacles to accelerating energy efficiency improvements can largely be boiled down to four main, immediate challenges:

• lack of capacity to map and measure energy efficiency gaps and improvement potential in different end-use sectors, resulting in uncertainty on where best to focus efforts, aggregate demand, and track progress
  • lack of coordinated policy measures across end-use sectors and insufficient capacity to enforce these
  • supply chain constraints, including those driven by geopolitics and friend-shoring, which limits access to technology and energy efficient appliances¹⁵
  • the cost of capital, which continues to increase, especially in developing countries.

Parties must respond quickly and tangibly to the call to doubling energy efficiency globally by 2030. A number of solutions and opportunities exist to help overcome these challenges. At the same time, clear leadership that is inspiring, inclusive, respects the nationally determined nature of NDCs and meets Parties and NPS where they are in terms of capacity, is essential. Enhanced international cooperation is vital to move from incrementalism to transformative levels of action in 2024 and beyond.